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Guide to Value Bets: Seeking the Mathematical Edge

Welcome to the Value Bets section, the highest level of analytical betting.

While an average bettor asks "Who will win?", a professional bettor asks "Is the offered price right?". This page highlights opportunities where bookmakers have undervalued the probability.

What exactly is a Value Bet?

A Value Bet occurs when the probability of an outcome is higher than what the odds suggest. Imagine a coin toss: if someone offers you odds of 2.10 for heads (50% chance), that is a value bet.

Golden Rule: If the Market Odds are higher than our Fair Odds, you have found Value. The larger the gap, the greater your mathematical Edge.

Difference between "Picking a Winner" and "Value Betting"

Standard Strategy: You only care about the win. If Real wins at 1.20, you might win the bet, but long-term you lose money because the price doesn't cover the risk.
Value Strategy: Our model calculates fair odds of 1.43. If the bookie offers 1.60, we bet. If they offer 1.30, we skip even if we think they will win.

Why track Balance and ROI?

Value betting is about discipline and exploiting a mathematical advantage that manifests over time through ROI and Success Rate.

What to watch out for with Value Bets?

Sometimes there is a good reason for the difference between the calculated odds and the bookmaker's odds, most often hidden in extraordinary motivation or key team absences. It is important to keep an eye on these factors.

‹ 14.10. 15.10. · 09.11. 16.10. ›
🎯 STRATEGY OF THE DAY & LIVE TRACKING
The first strategy follows the mathematical calculation of Value Bets. The second has the logic that if bookmakers set odds significantly differently than the model, there is a reason for it – so we bet exactly the opposite – on the other team, never on a draw (if the value pick is a draw, we back the bookmakers' favourite of the two teams).
Strategy by Value Bets
Match & League Tip Odds (Market / Fair) Result Stake Balance
Copa Sudamericana CONMEBOL Sudamericana FT
00:00 Atletico-MG - Atletico Torque
2
Market: 9.50
Fair: 2.70
 3:0 100 j. -100
Europa League Europa League FT
21:00 Dinamo Zagreb - Anderlecht
2
Market: 3.60
Fair: 1.82
 1:0 100 j. -100
Saudi Arabia Saudi Pro League FT
17:15 Al-Hazm - Al-Fateh
1
Market: 2.40
Fair: 1.43
 2:3 100 j. -100
England League One FT
21:00 Mansfield Town - Oxford United
2
Market: 2.90
Fair: 1.64
 1:1 100 j. -100
Europa League Europa League FT
21:00 Rennes - OFI
2
Market: 11.00
Fair: 4.00
 2:1 100 j. -100
United States USL League One FT
01:00 Greenville Triumph - Spokane Velocity
2
Market: 2.30
Fair: 1.45
 4:3 100 j. -100
Polen 2.liga FT
18:30 Pogoń Siedlce - Puszcza Niepołomice
1
Market: 2.62
Fair: 1.61
 1:3 100 j. -100
Conference League Conference League FT
18:45 KuPS - Trabzonspor
1
Market: 6.00
Fair: 2.86
 2:4 100 j. -100
Conference League Conference League FT
21:00 Brighton - Kauno Žalgiris
X
Market: 21.00
Fair: 6.25
 4:0 100 j. -100
Europa League Europa League FT
18:45 Torreense - Sunderland
1
Market: 7.50
Fair: 3.33
 1:2 100 j. -100
Stakes1000 j.
Net Profit-1000 j.
ROI-100 %
Success Rate0 %
Exact Opposite Strategy (Bookies know why they set odds differently)
Match & League Tip Odds (Market / Fair) Result Stake Balance
Copa Sudamericana CONMEBOL Sudamericana FT
00:00 Atletico-MG - Atletico Torque
1
Market: 1.36
Fair: 2.86
 3:0 100 j. +36
Europa League Europa League FT
21:00 Dinamo Zagreb - Anderlecht
1
Market: 2.00
Fair: 5.26
 1:0 100 j. +100
Saudi Arabia Saudi Pro League FT
17:15 Al-Hazm - Al-Fateh
2
Market: 2.45
Fair: 11.11
 2:3 100 j. +145
England League One FT
21:00 Mansfield Town - Oxford United
1
Market: 2.20
Fair: 6.67
 1:1 100 j. -100
Europa League Europa League FT
21:00 Rennes - OFI
1
Market: 1.22
Fair: 2.13
 2:1 100 j. +22
United States USL League One FT
01:00 Greenville Triumph - Spokane Velocity
1
Market: 2.62
Fair: 10.00
 4:3 100 j. +162
Polen 2.liga FT
18:30 Pogoń Siedlce - Puszcza Niepołomice
2
Market: 2.45
Fair: 7.14
 1:3 100 j. +145
Conference League Conference League FT
18:45 KuPS - Trabzonspor
2
Market: 1.44
Fair: 2.70
 2:4 100 j. +44
Conference League Conference League FT
21:00 Brighton - Kauno Žalgiris
1
Market: 1.03
Fair: 1.25
 4:0 100 j. +3
Europa League Europa League FT
18:45 Torreense - Sunderland
2
Market: 1.36
Fair: 2.38
 1:2 100 j. +36
Stakes1000 j.
Net Profit+593 j.
ROI59.3 %
Success Rate90 %
📊 ANALYSES AND ODDS BY LEAGUE
Europa League Europa League
18:45
Sparta Praha
1 : 0
Lillestrom
Market1 1.35X 5.002 8.00
Fair1 1.59X 4.172 7.69
VALUE: X (+20%)
18:45
Torreense
1 : 1
Sunderland
Market1 7.50X 4.802 1.36
Fair1 3.33X 3.572 2.38
VALUE: 1 (+125%), X (+34%)
18:45
AZ Alkmaar
1 : 0
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Market1 1.30X 5.002 9.00
Fair1 1.47X 4.762 9.09
18:45
Celje
1 : 1
Omonia Nicosia
Market1 2.60X 3.202 2.62
Fair1 2.56X 3.572 3.03
18:45
Lech Poznan
0 : 1
Bayer Leverkusen
Market1 4.40X 4.202 1.65
Fair1 3.85X 3.572 2.17
VALUE: 1 (+14%), X (+18%)
18:45
Lyon
1 : 1
Crystal Palace
Market1 2.20X 3.402 3.00
Fair1 2.56X 3.572 3.03
18:45
Union St. Gilloise
1 : 1
Real Sociedad
Market1 2.45X 3.402 2.62
Fair1 2.70X 3.572 2.86
18:45
Red Bull Salzburg
1 : 1
AC Milan
Market1 3.30X 3.402 2.05
Fair1 2.63X 3.572 2.94
VALUE: 1 (+25%)
21:00
Ferencvarosi TC
2 : 0
Plzen
Market1 1.91X 3.602 3.60
Fair1 1.45X 4.762 10.00
VALUE: 1 (+32%)
21:00
1899 Hoffenheim
0 : 1
Beşiktaş
Market1 1.91X 3.802 3.40
Fair1 4.55X 3.702 1.96
VALUE: 2 (+73%)
21:00
Jagiellonia
2 : 0
Ararat-Armenia
Market1 1.40X 4.602 7.00
Fair1 1.45X 4.762 10.00
21:00
Marseille
1 : 0
Olympiakos Piraeus
Market1 2.25X 3.402 2.90
Fair1 1.89X 3.702 5.00
VALUE: 1 (+19%)
21:00
Benfica
2 : 0
Celtic
Market1 1.25X 6.002 10.00
Fair1 1.25X 6.252 25.00
21:00
NEC Nijmegen
1 : 0
Levski Sofia
Market1 1.85X 3.602 3.80
Fair1 2.17X 3.572 3.85
21:00
Bournemouth
1 : 0
Sturm Graz
Market1 1.20X 6.502 11.00
Fair1 1.54X 4.352 8.33
VALUE: X (+49%), 2 (+32%)
21:00
Rennes
1 : 0
OFI
Market1 1.22X 6.502 11.00
Fair1 2.13X 3.572 4.00
VALUE: X (+82%), 2 (+175%)
21:00
Celta Vigo
0 : 1
Juventus
Market1 3.30X 3.202 2.15
Fair1 4.55X 3.702 1.96
VALUE: 2 (+10%)
21:00
Dinamo Zagreb
0 : 1
Anderlecht
Market1 2.00X 3.402 3.60
Fair1 5.26X 3.852 1.82
VALUE: 2 (+98%)
Conference League Conference League
18:45
Mjallby AIF
2 : 1
Inter Club d'Escaldes
Market1 1.33X 4.802 8.50
Fair1 2.13X 3.572 4.00
VALUE: X (+34%), 2 (+113%)
18:45
Panathinaikos
1 : 0
Borac Banja Luka
Market1 1.22X 6.002 12.00
Fair1 1.85X 3.852 5.00
VALUE: X (+56%), 2 (+140%)
18:45
CSKA Sofia
0 : 2
Monaco
Market1 5.50X 4.332 1.50
Fair1 10.00X 4.762 1.45
18:45
Riga
1 : 0
Kairat Almaty
Market1 1.91X 3.252 4.00
Fair1 2.04X 3.702 4.17
18:45
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0 : 2
FC Midtjylland
Market1 5.50X 4.002 1.55
Fair1 9.09X 4.762 1.47
VALUE: 2 (+5%)
18:45
Universitatea Craiova
1 : 1
Getafe
Market1 3.10X 3.102 2.30
Fair1 3.45X 3.572 2.33
18:45
Gent
1 : 0
Aarhus
Market1 1.62X 3.902 4.80
Fair1 1.64X 4.172 6.67
18:45
HNK Hajduk Split
0 : 1
Ajax
Market1 4.80X 4.002 1.62
Fair1 4.55X 3.702 1.96
VALUE: 1 (+6%), X (+8%)
18:45
KuPS
1 : 1
Trabzonspor
Market1 6.00X 4.202 1.44
Fair1 2.86X 3.572 2.70
VALUE: 1 (+110%), X (+18%)
18:45
FC Lugano
1 : 1
FK Crvena Zvezda
Market1 2.62X 3.402 2.45
Fair1 2.27X 3.572 3.57
VALUE: 1 (+15%)
21:00
Brighton
3 : 0
Kauno Žalgiris
Market1 1.03X 21.002 51.00
Fair1 1.25X 6.252 25.00
VALUE: X (+236%), 2 (+104%)
21:00
FC Copenhagen
1 : 0
SC Braga
Market1 2.45X 3.002 2.90
Fair1 2.04X 3.702 4.17
VALUE: 1 (+20%)
21:00
SC Freiburg
2 : 0
FK Jablonec
Market1 1.25X 5.502 11.00
Fair1 1.25X 6.252 25.00
21:00
Heart Of Midlothian
0 : 1
FC Nordsjaelland
Market1 2.90X 3.502 2.20
Fair1 6.67X 4.172 1.64
VALUE: 2 (+34%)
21:00
St. Truiden
2 : 0
FC Iberia 1999
Market1 1.29X 5.002 10.00
Fair1 1.45X 4.762 10.00
21:00
Twente
2 : 0
FC Thun
Market1 1.22X 6.502 10.00
Fair1 1.37X 5.262 12.50
VALUE: X (+23%)
21:00
Atalanta
1 : 0
Pafos
Market1 1.35X 4.802 8.50
Fair1 1.72X 4.002 5.88
VALUE: X (+20%), 2 (+44%)
21:00
Brann
2 : 1
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Market1 1.17X 7.502 13.00
Fair1 1.52X 4.552 8.33
VALUE: X (+65%), 2 (+56%)
England League One
21:00
Mansfield Town
1 : 2
Oxford United
Market1 2.20X 3.402 2.90
Fair1 6.67X 4.172 1.64
VALUE: 2 (+77%)
Argentina Liga Profesional
00:00
Sarmiento Junin
1 : 1
River Plate
Market1 5.00X 3.252 1.73
Fair1 2.86X 3.572 2.70
VALUE: 1 (+75%)
Saudi Arabia Saudi Pro League
15:40
Al-Faisaly FC
1 : 1
Al Kholood
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 2.38X 3.572 3.33
16:50
Al Khaleej Saihat
1 : 1
Al-Fayha
Market1 2.00X 3.102 3.20
Fair1 2.38X 3.572 3.33
17:15
Al-Hazm
2 : 0
Al-Fateh
Market1 2.40X 3.302 2.45
Fair1 1.43X 4.762 11.11
VALUE: 1 (+68%)
Copa Libertadores CONMEBOL Libertadores
02:30
Fluminense
1 : 1
Palmeiras
Market1 2.80X 2.752 2.62
Fair1 2.56X 3.572 3.03
VALUE: 1 (+9%)
United States MLS
01:30
Columbus Crew
1 : 1
Charlotte
Market1 1.95X 3.502 3.25
Fair1 2.86X 3.572 2.70
VALUE: 2 (+20%)
01:30
FC Cincinnati
2 : 2
New England Revolution
Market1 1.85X 3.802 3.40
Fair1 2.22X 3.572 3.70
VALUE: X (+6%)
01:30
Toronto FC
2 : 2
Orlando City SC
Market1 2.15X 3.502 2.90
Fair1 2.56X 3.572 3.03
01:30
CF Montreal
1 : 1
Atlanta United FC
Market1 2.25X 3.502 2.70
Fair1 2.44X 3.572 3.23
01:30
DC United
1 : 1
New York Red Bulls
Market1 1.85X 3.702 3.40
Fair1 3.33X 3.572 2.38
VALUE: 2 (+43%)
01:30
Inter Miami
2 : 1
New York City FC
Market1 1.44X 4.502 5.00
Fair1 1.64X 4.172 6.67
VALUE: X (+8%)
02:30
St. Louis City
2 : 1
Vancouver Whitecaps
Market1 2.20X 3.502 2.75
Fair1 1.61X 4.172 7.14
VALUE: 1 (+36%)
02:30
Nashville SC
2 : 0
Sporting Kansas City
Market1 1.20X 6.502 10.00
Fair1 1.25X 6.252 25.00
02:30
FC Dallas
1 : 1
Seattle Sounders
Market1 1.85X 3.702 3.50
Fair1 3.23X 3.572 2.44
VALUE: 2 (+43%)
02:30
Chicago Fire
1 : 1
Philadelphia Union
Market1 2.40X 3.502 2.50
Fair1 2.86X 3.572 2.70
03:30
Colorado Rapids
2 : 1
Minnesota United FC
Market1 2.10X 3.402 3.00
Fair1 1.82X 3.852 5.26
VALUE: 1 (+16%)
03:30
Real Salt Lake
1 : 1
San Jose Earthquakes
Market1 1.85X 3.602 3.50
Fair1 3.70X 3.572 2.22
VALUE: 2 (+57%)
04:30
Los Angeles Galaxy
1 : 1
Portland Timbers
Market1 2.05X 3.602 3.00
Fair1 2.33X 3.572 3.45
04:30
San Diego
1 : 1
Houston Dynamo
Market1 2.15X 3.302 2.90
Fair1 2.94X 3.572 2.63
VALUE: 2 (+10%)
04:30
Los Angeles FC
2 : 1
Austin
Market1 1.40X 4.402 6.00
Fair1 1.75X 4.002 5.56
VALUE: X (+10%), 2 (+8%)
Copa Sudamericana CONMEBOL Sudamericana
00:00
Atletico-MG
1 : 1
Atletico Torque
Market1 1.36X 4.202 9.50
Fair1 2.86X 3.572 2.70
VALUE: X (+18%), 2 (+251%)
Belorussia Vysheyshaya Liga
17:30
Dinamo Minsk
2 : 0
Slavia Mozyr
Market1 1.43X 4.152 7.40
Fair1 1.41X 5.002 11.11
19:30
ML Vitebsk
3 : 0
Torpedo Zhodino
Market1 1.40X 4.202 8.20
Fair1 1.25X 6.252 25.00
VALUE: 1 (+12%)
Columbia Primera B
00:00
Real Cundinamarca
1 : 0
Bogota FC
Market1 1.75X 3.002 4.33
Fair1 1.85X 3.852 5.00
21:00
Envigado
1 : 0
Real Santander
Market1 1.60X 3.302 5.00
Fair1 1.64X 4.172 6.67
23:00
Barranquilla
1 : 1
Tigres FC
Market1 2.45X 2.752 2.80
Fair1 3.03X 3.572 2.56
VALUE: 2 (+9%)
Costa Rica Primera División
01:00
Perez Zeledon
1 : 0
Escorpiones Belén
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 1.79X 3.852 5.56
04:00
LD Alajuelense
2 : 0
CS Herediano
Market1 1.85X 3.002 3.75
Fair1 1.37X 5.262 12.50
VALUE: 1 (+35%)
Côte d'Ivoire Ligue 1
17:30
ES Agboville
? : ?
Adiake
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 -X -2 -
17:30
SOL
0 : 1
Stade d'Abidjan
Market1 3.50X 3.002 2.00
Fair1 3.85X 3.572 2.17
Ecuador Serie B
21:00
Atletico FC
1 : 0
Ind. Juniors
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 1.89X 3.852 4.76
22:00
Cumbayá
3 : 0
22 de Julio
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 1.25X 6.252 25.00
Estonia Esiliiga A
18:00
Viimsi
2 : 1
Maardu
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 1.82X 3.852 5.26
18:00
FC Tallinn
1 : 3
Tartu Welco
Market1 5.40X 4.702 1.43
Fair1 16.67X 6.252 1.28
VALUE: 2 (+12%)
Estonia Meistriliiga
18:00
Flora Tallinn
0 : 2
FC Levadia Tallinn
Market1 5.00X 4.332 1.44
Fair1 11.11X 5.002 1.41
France National
20:45
Caen
1 : 1
La Roche VF
Market1 2.05X 3.102 3.10
Fair1 2.44X 3.572 3.23
Guatemala Liga Nacional
01:00
Comunicaciones
2 : 1
Aurora
Market1 1.40X 3.802 7.00
Fair1 2.08X 3.702 4.00
VALUE: 2 (+75%)
03:00
Guastatoya
2 : 1
Antigua GFC
Market1 2.30X 2.882 2.90
Fair1 2.08X 3.702 4.00
VALUE: 1 (+10%)
05:00
Marquense
2 : 1
Mixco
Market1 1.62X 3.302 5.00
Fair1 1.96X 3.702 4.55
VALUE: 2 (+10%)
20:00
Xelajú
2 : 1
Malacateco
Market1 1.53X 3.602 5.50
Fair1 1.67X 4.172 6.25
23:00
Cobán Imperial
1 : 1
Municipal
Market1 2.70X 3.102 2.35
Fair1 3.33X 3.572 2.38
Jordan League
17:00
Al Arabi
? : ?
Shabab Al Ordon
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 -X -2 -
Kazakhstan First Division
12:00
Arys
1 : 1
Akademiya Ontustik
Market1 3.54X 3.932 1.74
Fair1 2.38X 3.572 3.33
VALUE: 1 (+49%), X (+10%)
13:00
Astana II
2 : 0
Yelimay Semey 2
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 1.37X 5.262 12.50
13:00
Tobol 2
1 : 1
Jaiyq
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 2.38X 3.572 3.33
14:00
Khan Tengri
2 : 1
Aktobe Jas
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 1.56X 4.352 7.69
Kosovo Superliga
14:00
Malisheva
1 : 1
Prishtina
Market1 1.80X 3.402 3.80
Fair1 2.38X 3.572 3.33
VALUE: 2 (+14%)
Kyrgyzstan Premier League
15:00
Bishkek City
? : ?
OshMU Aldier
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 -X -2 -
15:00
Kara-Balta
? : ?
Neftchi
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 -X -2 -
15:00
Toktogul
? : ?
Abdish-Ata
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 -X -2 -
Latvia Virsliga
16:00
Rīgas FS
2 : 0
Super Nova
Market1 1.14X 7.502 11.00
Fair1 1.28X 6.252 16.67
VALUE: X (+20%)
Polen 2.liga
18:30
Pogoń Siedlce
1 : 0
Puszcza Niepołomice
Market1 2.62X 3.002 2.45
Fair1 1.61X 4.172 7.14
VALUE: 1 (+62%)
Turkey TFF 1. Lig
16:00
Mardin 1969
1 : 0
Fatih Karagümrük
Market1 2.05X 3.202 3.50
Fair1 1.82X 3.852 5.26
VALUE: 1 (+13%)
19:00
Manisa F.K.
1 : 0
Esenler Erokspor
Market1 3.30X 3.302 2.05
Fair1 2.00X 3.702 4.35
VALUE: 1 (+65%)
19:00
Muğlaspor
1 : 1
Bursaspor
Market1 4.80X 3.602 1.62
Fair1 3.23X 3.572 2.44
VALUE: 1 (+49%)
United States USL
01:00
Hartford Athletic
1 : 1
Charleston Battery
Market1 2.50X 3.502 2.38
Fair1 2.50X 3.572 3.13
01:00
Sporting JAX
0 : 2
Birmingham Legion
Market1 3.40X 3.502 1.85
Fair1 11.11X 5.002 1.41
VALUE: 2 (+31%)
01:30
Rhode Island
2 : 1
Loudoun United
Market1 1.50X 4.002 5.00
Fair1 2.13X 3.572 4.00
VALUE: X (+12%), 2 (+25%)
United States USL League One
01:00
Greenville Triumph
0 : 2
Spokane Velocity
Market1 2.62X 3.102 2.30
Fair1 10.00X 4.762 1.45
VALUE: 2 (+59%)
Uzbekistan Super League
16:00
Andijan
1 : 1
Qizilqum
Market1 1.73X 3.202 4.33
Fair1 3.03X 3.572 2.56
VALUE: 2 (+69%)
16:00
Mash'al
0 : 2
Olmaliq
Market1 6.00X 4.002 1.40
Fair1 10.00X 4.762 1.45
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