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Guide to Value Bets: Seeking the Mathematical Edge

Welcome to the Value Bets section, the highest level of analytical betting.

While an average bettor asks "Who will win?", a professional bettor asks "Is the offered price right?". This page highlights opportunities where bookmakers have undervalued the probability.

What exactly is a Value Bet?

A Value Bet occurs when the probability of an outcome is higher than what the odds suggest. Imagine a coin toss: if someone offers you odds of 2.10 for heads (50% chance), that is a value bet.

Golden Rule: If the Market Odds are higher than our Fair Odds, you have found Value. The larger the gap, the greater your mathematical Edge.

Difference between "Picking a Winner" and "Value Betting"

Standard Strategy: You only care about the win. If Real wins at 1.20, you might win the bet, but long-term you lose money because the price doesn't cover the risk.
Value Strategy: Our model calculates fair odds of 1.43. If the bookie offers 1.60, we bet. If they offer 1.30, we skip even if we think they will win.

Why track Balance and ROI?

Value betting is about discipline and exploiting a mathematical advantage that manifests over time through ROI and Success Rate.

What to watch out for with Value Bets?

Sometimes there is a good reason for the difference between the calculated odds and the bookmaker's odds, most often hidden in extraordinary motivation or key team absences. It is important to keep an eye on these factors.

‹ 21.10. 22.10. · 09.11. 23.10. ›
🎯 STRATEGY OF THE DAY & LIVE TRACKING
The first strategy follows the mathematical calculation of Value Bets. The second has the logic that if bookmakers set odds significantly differently than the model, there is a reason for it – so we bet exactly the opposite – on the other team, never on a draw (if the value pick is a draw, we back the bookmakers' favourite of the two teams).
Strategy by Value Bets
Match & League Tip Odds (Market / Fair) Result Stake Balance
Kazakhstan First Division FT
11:00 Ekibastuz - Taraz
2
Market: 2.11
Fair: 1.27
 2:3 100 j. +111
Conference League Conference League FT
18:45 FK Crvena Zvezda - FC Copenhagen
2
Market: 2.90
Fair: 1.72
 2:2 100 j. -100
Kazakhstan First Division FT
11:00 Aktobe Jas - Astana II
2
Market: 2.12
Fair: 1.41
 3:6 100 j. +112
Mexico Liga MX FT
05:10 Santos Laguna - U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1
Market: 2.10
Fair: 1.47
 2:0 100 j. +110
Kazakhstan First Division FT
11:00 Akademiya Ontustik - Turan Turkistan
2
Market: 2.42
Fair: 1.64
 0:2 100 j. +142
Jordan League FT
17:00 Al Hussein - Doqarah
2
Market: 11.00
Fair: 4.76
 1:0 100 j. -100
Europa League Europa League FT
21:00 1899 Hoffenheim - Lyon
2
Market: 3.30
Fair: 2.13
 3:0 100 j. -100
Conference League Conference League FT
21:00 Aarhus - Egnatia Rrogozhinë
2
Market: 5.80
Fair: 3.23
 1:1 100 j. -100
Iraq Super League FT
18:00 Gharraf - Naft
2
Market: 2.30
Fair: 1.69
 0:0 100 j. -100
Europa League Europa League FT
21:00 Celtic - Celta Vigo
2
Market: 2.50
Fair: 1.82
 1:2 100 j. +150
Stakes1000 j.
Net Profit+125 j.
ROI12.5 %
Success Rate50 %
Exact Opposite Strategy (Bookies know why they set odds differently)
Match & League Tip Odds (Market / Fair) Result Stake Balance
Kazakhstan First Division FT
11:00 Ekibastuz - Taraz
1
Market: 2.68
Fair: 20.00
 2:3 100 j. -100
Conference League Conference League FT
18:45 FK Crvena Zvezda - FC Copenhagen
1
Market: 2.20
Fair: 5.88
 2:2 100 j. -100
Kazakhstan First Division FT
11:00 Aktobe Jas - Astana II
1
Market: 2.32
Fair: 11.11
 3:6 100 j. -100
Mexico Liga MX FT
05:10 Santos Laguna - U.N.A.M. - Pumas
2
Market: 2.80
Fair: 9.09
 2:0 100 j. -100
Kazakhstan First Division FT
11:00 Akademiya Ontustik - Turan Turkistan
1
Market: 2.28
Fair: 6.67
 0:2 100 j. -100
Jordan League FT
17:00 Al Hussein - Doqarah
1
Market: 1.22
Fair: 1.92
 1:0 100 j. +22
Europa League Europa League FT
21:00 1899 Hoffenheim - Lyon
1
Market: 1.95
Fair: 4.00
 3:0 100 j. +95
Conference League Conference League FT
21:00 Aarhus - Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1
Market: 1.55
Fair: 2.44
 1:1 100 j. -100
Iraq Super League FT
18:00 Gharraf - Naft
1
Market: 3.10
Fair: 6.25
 0:0 100 j. -100
Europa League Europa League FT
21:00 Celtic - Celta Vigo
1
Market: 2.62
Fair: 5.26
 1:2 100 j. -100
Stakes1000 j.
Net Profit-683 j.
ROI-68.3 %
Success Rate20 %
📊 ANALYSES AND ODDS BY LEAGUE
Europa League Europa League
18:45
Lech Poznan
0 : 1
Sunderland
Market1 4.50X 3.802 1.70
Fair1 5.88X 4.002 1.72
18:45
OFI
0 : 1
Bayer Leverkusen
Market1 11.00X 6.002 1.22
Fair1 5.88X 4.002 1.72
VALUE: 1 (+87%), X (+50%)
18:45
Union St. Gilloise
2 : 0
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Market1 1.35X 5.002 8.00
Fair1 1.41X 5.002 11.11
18:45
Sturm Graz
1 : 1
Marseille
Market1 3.40X 3.502 2.00
Fair1 2.86X 3.572 2.70
VALUE: 1 (+19%)
18:45
Ararat-Armenia
1 : 2
AZ Alkmaar
Market1 5.50X 4.332 1.50
Fair1 9.09X 4.552 1.49
18:45
Dinamo Zagreb
1 : 0
NEC Nijmegen
Market1 1.62X 4.002 4.80
Fair1 1.89X 3.852 4.76
18:45
Ferencvarosi TC
1 : 0
Torreense
Market1 1.33X 4.802 8.50
Fair1 1.85X 3.852 5.00
VALUE: X (+25%), 2 (+70%)
18:45
Juventus
2 : 0
Rennes
Market1 1.55X 4.002 5.50
Fair1 1.37X 5.262 12.50
VALUE: 1 (+13%)
21:00
Lillestrom
0 : 1
Real Sociedad
Market1 5.50X 4.502 1.44
Fair1 5.56X 3.852 1.79
VALUE: X (+17%)
21:00
Olympiakos Piraeus
1 : 0
Sparta Praha
Market1 1.50X 4.202 5.80
Fair1 1.85X 3.852 5.00
VALUE: X (+9%), 2 (+16%)
21:00
Beşiktaş
1 : 0
Crystal Palace
Market1 2.05X 3.702 3.10
Fair1 1.92X 3.702 4.76
VALUE: 1 (+7%)
21:00
Omonia Nicosia
0 : 1
Benfica
Market1 7.50X 4.802 1.36
Fair1 5.26X 3.852 1.82
VALUE: 1 (+43%), X (+25%)
21:00
Bournemouth
1 : 0
AC Milan
Market1 2.00X 3.502 3.40
Fair1 2.08X 3.702 4.00
21:00
Plzen
1 : 1
Levski Sofia
Market1 1.75X 3.702 4.00
Fair1 2.56X 3.572 3.03
VALUE: 2 (+32%)
21:00
Celje
1 : 1
Red Bull Salzburg
Market1 5.00X 4.002 1.55
Fair1 3.23X 3.572 2.44
VALUE: 1 (+55%), X (+12%)
21:00
Celtic
0 : 1
Celta Vigo
Market1 2.62X 3.302 2.50
Fair1 5.26X 3.852 1.82
VALUE: 2 (+38%)
21:00
1899 Hoffenheim
0 : 1
Lyon
Market1 1.95X 3.802 3.30
Fair1 4.00X 3.572 2.13
VALUE: X (+6%), 2 (+55%)
21:00
Jagiellonia
1 : 1
Anderlecht
Market1 3.00X 3.402 2.20
Fair1 3.57X 3.572 2.27
Conference League Conference League
16:30
Kairat Almaty
1 : 1
Panathinaikos
Market1 4.80X 3.752 1.67
Fair1 3.57X 3.572 2.27
VALUE: 1 (+34%)
18:45
FK Jablonec
0 : 2
Brighton
Market1 11.00X 5.502 1.25
Fair1 14.29X 5.882 1.32
18:45
Kauno Žalgiris
1 : 2
Brann
Market1 4.33X 3.902 1.70
Fair1 4.55X 3.702 1.96
VALUE: X (+5%)
18:45
FC Nordsjaelland
2 : 0
CSKA Sofia
Market1 1.40X 4.602 6.50
Fair1 1.45X 4.762 10.00
18:45
Pafos
1 : 0
Riga
Market1 1.62X 3.802 5.00
Fair1 1.79X 3.852 5.56
18:45
Trabzonspor
1 : 0
Heart Of Midlothian
Market1 1.29X 5.502 9.00
Fair1 1.67X 4.172 6.25
VALUE: X (+32%), 2 (+44%)
18:45
FK Crvena Zvezda
0 : 1
FC Copenhagen
Market1 2.20X 3.402 2.90
Fair1 5.88X 4.002 1.72
VALUE: 2 (+68%)
18:45
Getafe
1 : 1
FC Lugano
Market1 1.85X 3.302 4.20
Fair1 2.63X 3.572 2.94
VALUE: 2 (+43%)
18:45
FC Iberia 1999
1 : 1
Mjallby AIF
Market1 3.10X 3.202 2.25
Fair1 3.23X 3.572 2.44
18:45
Inter Club d'Escaldes
1 : 2
Universitatea Craiova
Market1 5.00X 3.802 1.62
Fair1 4.17X 3.702 2.04
VALUE: 1 (+20%)
21:00
Lincoln Red Imps FC
1 : 2
Twente
Market1 11.00X 6.002 1.22
Fair1 7.14X 4.172 1.61
VALUE: 1 (+54%), X (+44%)
21:00
FC Midtjylland
1 : 0
St. Truiden
Market1 1.65X 3.902 4.75
Fair1 1.61X 4.172 7.14
21:00
Monaco
1 : 1
SC Freiburg
Market1 2.20X 3.402 3.00
Fair1 2.33X 3.572 3.45
21:00
FC Thun
1 : 2
HNK Hajduk Split
Market1 2.70X 3.402 2.40
Fair1 4.76X 3.702 1.92
VALUE: 2 (+25%)
21:00
Aarhus
1 : 1
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Market1 1.55X 4.002 5.80
Fair1 2.44X 3.572 3.23
VALUE: X (+12%), 2 (+80%)
21:00
Ajax
1 : 1
Atalanta
Market1 2.10X 3.602 3.00
Fair1 2.70X 3.572 2.86
21:00
Borac Banja Luka
2 : 1
KuPS
Market1 1.80X 3.402 4.40
Fair1 1.85X 3.852 5.00
21:00
SC Braga
1 : 0
Gent
Market1 1.85X 3.302 4.20
Fair1 1.82X 3.852 5.26
Mexico Liga MX
03:00
Toluca
2 : 1
Club Tijuana
Market1 1.22X 5.502 8.50
Fair1 1.69X 4.002 6.25
VALUE: X (+37%), 2 (+36%)
03:00
Atlas
1 : 2
Club America
Market1 3.20X 3.302 1.95
Fair1 4.00X 3.572 2.13
03:00
Puebla
1 : 1
Monterrey
Market1 3.70X 3.402 1.75
Fair1 2.94X 3.572 2.63
VALUE: 1 (+26%)
05:10
CF Pachuca
1 : 2
Cruz Azul
Market1 2.80X 3.252 2.15
Fair1 3.85X 3.572 2.17
05:10
Santos Laguna
2 : 0
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Market1 2.10X 3.252 2.80
Fair1 1.47X 4.762 9.09
VALUE: 1 (+43%)
Saudi Arabia Saudi Pro League
15:40
Al-Hazm
1 : 0
Al-Fayha
Market1 2.20X 3.002 2.90
Fair1 1.85X 3.852 5.00
VALUE: 1 (+19%)
16:45
Al-Fateh
1 : 2
Al Shabab
Market1 2.90X 3.302 2.05
Fair1 4.17X 3.702 2.04
Copa Libertadores CONMEBOL Libertadores
02:30
Palmeiras
1 : 0
Fluminense
Market1 1.91X 3.202 3.90
Fair1 1.72X 4.002 5.88
VALUE: 1 (+11%)
United States MLS
01:00
FC Cincinnati
2 : 1
DC United
Market1 1.65X 4.202 4.00
Fair1 1.96X 3.702 4.55
VALUE: X (+13%)
Copa Sudamericana CONMEBOL Sudamericana
00:00
Atletico Torque
1 : 1
Atletico-MG
Market1 2.88X 3.252 2.30
Fair1 3.57X 3.572 2.27
Columbia Primera A
01:15
Llaneros
1 : 1
Deportivo Cali
Market1 2.70X 2.902 2.62
Fair1 3.03X 3.572 2.56
03:20
Santa Fe
2 : 0
Jaguares
Market1 1.30X 4.802 9.00
Fair1 1.37X 5.262 12.50
Armenia Bardzragujn khumb
17:00
Sardarapat
1 : 1
FC Urartu
Market1 3.60X 3.502 1.80
Fair1 3.57X 3.572 2.27
Bahrain Premier League
18:00
Al Najma
2 : 1
A'Ali
Market1 2.20X 3.002 3.00
Fair1 1.72X 4.002 5.88
VALUE: 1 (+28%)
18:00
Sitra
0 : 1
Al Riffa
Market1 5.50X 3.302 1.60
Fair1 7.14X 4.352 1.59
Canada Canadian Championship
01:00
CF Montreal
2 : 1
Forge
Market1 1.75X 3.302 4.00
Fair1 2.00X 3.702 4.35
Ecuador Serie B
20:30
San Antonio
1 : 1
9 de Octubre
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 3.45X 3.572 2.33
20:30
Cuniburo
1 : 1
Ind. Juniors
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 2.38X 3.572 3.33
20:30
Deportivo Cuenca Juniors
0 : 1
Atletico FC
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 7.14X 4.172 1.61
22:00
Cumbayá
2 : 0
El Nacional
Market1 1.40X 4.202 6.25
Fair1 1.32X 5.562 16.67
VALUE: 1 (+6%)
El Salvador Primera Division
03:30
FAS
2 : 1
Isidro Metapán
Market1 2.15X 3.102 3.00
Fair1 1.92X 3.702 4.76
VALUE: 1 (+12%)
Estonia Esiliiga A
18:00
Flora II
2 : 2
Nõmme United II
Market1 1.83X 4.752 2.80
Fair1 2.17X 3.572 3.85
VALUE: X (+33%)
Finland Ykkosliiga
17:00
Rops
? : ?
KäPa
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 -X -2 -
Indonesia Liga 1
10:30
Persik Kediri
1 : 0
PSS Sleman
Market1 1.80X 3.302 3.90
Fair1 1.92X 3.702 4.76
10:30
PSM Makassar
1 : 2
Persebaya Surabaya
Market1 3.20X 3.102 2.05
Fair1 3.85X 3.572 2.17
14:00
Persepam Madura Utd
1 : 1
Persib Bandung
Market1 4.20X 3.302 1.75
Fair1 2.78X 3.572 2.78
VALUE: 1 (+51%)
Iran Persian Gulf Pro League
15:30
Tractor Sazi
2 : 0
Sanat Naft
Market1 1.18X 5.252 13.25
Fair1 1.45X 4.762 10.00
VALUE: X (+10%), 2 (+32%)
Iraq Super League
16:00
Zakho
0 : 1
Erbil
Market1 3.10X 3.102 2.15
Fair1 4.17X 3.702 2.04
VALUE: 2 (+5%)
18:00
Gharraf
0 : 1
Naft
Market1 3.10X 2.882 2.30
Fair1 6.25X 4.002 1.69
VALUE: 2 (+36%)
19:00
Al Talaba
1 : 1
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Market1 2.60X 3.102 2.40
Fair1 3.13X 3.572 2.50
Jordan League
17:00
Al Hussein
2 : 1
Doqarah
Market1 1.22X 5.002 11.00
Fair1 1.92X 3.702 4.76
VALUE: X (+35%), 2 (+131%)
Kazakhstan First Division
11:00
Aktobe Jas
1 : 3
Astana II
Market1 2.32X 4.532 2.12
Fair1 11.11X 5.002 1.41
VALUE: 2 (+51%)
11:00
Ekibastuz
0 : 2
Taraz
Market1 2.68X 3.802 2.11
Fair1 20.00X 6.252 1.27
VALUE: 2 (+67%)
11:00
Jaiyq
1 : 1
Arys
Market1 2.01X 3.602 2.98
Fair1 3.23X 3.572 2.44
VALUE: 2 (+22%)
11:00
Kaspij Aktau 2
1 : 1
Khan Tengri
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 2.78X 3.452 2.86
11:00
Shakhter Karagandy
2 : 1
Sport Academy Kairat
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 2.04X 3.702 4.17
11:00
Yelimay Semey 2
1 : 3
Tobol 2
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 20.00X 6.252 1.27
11:00
Akademiya Ontustik
1 : 2
Turan Turkistan
Market1 2.28X 3.682 2.42
Fair1 6.67X 4.172 1.64
VALUE: 2 (+48%)
Kyrgyzstan Premier League
15:00
OshMU Aldier
1 : 1
Asiagoal
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 2.86X 3.572 2.70
15:00
Ozgon
2 : 2
Asia Talas
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 2.38X 3.572 3.33
Latvia 1. Liga
14:00
Tukums II
1 : 2
Super Nova 2
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 4.00X 3.572 2.13
Malta Premier League
18:00
Birkirkara
1 : 2
Floriana
Market1 2.80X 3.302 2.15
Fair1 4.17X 3.702 2.04
VALUE: 2 (+5%)
20:30
Hibernians
1 : 0
Gzira United
Market1 1.95X 3.102 3.60
Fair1 2.00X 3.702 4.35
Montenegro 1. CFL
15:00
Mornar
1 : 0
Mladost DG
Market1 1.48X 4.002 5.75
Fair1 1.59X 4.172 7.69
18:00
Buducnost Podgorica
2 : 0
Arsenal Tivat
Market1 1.44X 3.702 6.50
Fair1 1.27X 6.252 20.00
VALUE: 1 (+14%)
Romania Liga II
15:00
Bihor Oradea
2 : 1
CSM Reşiţa
Market1 2.05X 3.202 3.25
Fair1 2.00X 3.702 4.35
United States USL
00:30
Brooklyn
1 : 2
Birmingham Legion
Market1 2.50X 3.302 2.38
Fair1 4.17X 3.702 2.04
VALUE: 2 (+17%)
01:30
Sporting JAX
0 : 2
Louisville City
Market1 6.00X 4.752 1.36
Fair1 20.00X 6.252 1.27
VALUE: 2 (+7%)
United States USL League One
00:30
Sarasota Paradise
2 : 1
Naples
Market1 1.75X 3.302 3.80
Fair1 1.72X 4.002 5.88
01:00
NY Cosmos
1 : 2
Spokane Velocity
Market1 3.25X 3.252 1.95
Fair1 8.33X 4.352 1.54
VALUE: 2 (+27%)
Uzbekistan Super League
15:30
Bunyodkor
1 : 0
Mash'al
Market1 1.36X 4.202 7.00
Fair1 1.49X 4.552 9.09
Vietnam V.League 1
14:15
Công An Nhân Dân
2 : 0
Thanh Hóa
Market1 1.22X 6.002 9.50
Fair1 1.41X 5.002 11.11
VALUE: X (+20%)
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