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Guide to Value Bets: Seeking the Mathematical Edge

Welcome to the Value Bets section, the highest level of analytical betting.

While an average bettor asks "Who will win?", a professional bettor asks "Is the offered price right?". This page highlights opportunities where bookmakers have undervalued the probability.

What exactly is a Value Bet?

A Value Bet occurs when the probability of an outcome is higher than what the odds suggest. Imagine a coin toss: if someone offers you odds of 2.10 for heads (50% chance), that is a value bet.

Golden Rule: If the Market Odds are higher than our Fair Odds, you have found Value. The larger the gap, the greater your mathematical Edge.

Difference between "Picking a Winner" and "Value Betting"

Standard Strategy: You only care about the win. If Real wins at 1.20, you might win the bet, but long-term you lose money because the price doesn't cover the risk.
Value Strategy: Our model calculates fair odds of 1.43. If the bookie offers 1.60, we bet. If they offer 1.30, we skip even if we think they will win.

Why track Balance and ROI?

Value betting is about discipline and exploiting a mathematical advantage that manifests over time through ROI and Success Rate.

What to watch out for with Value Bets?

Sometimes there is a good reason for the difference between the calculated odds and the bookmaker's odds, most often hidden in extraordinary motivation or key team absences. It is important to keep an eye on these factors.

‹ 04.11. 05.11. · 09.11. 06.11. ›
🎯 STRATEGY OF THE DAY & LIVE TRACKING
The first strategy follows the mathematical calculation of Value Bets. The second has the logic that if bookmakers set odds significantly differently than the model, there is a reason for it – so we bet exactly the opposite – on the other team, never on a draw (if the value pick is a draw, we back the bookmakers' favourite of the two teams).
Strategy by Value Bets
Match & League Tip Odds (Market / Fair) Result Stake Balance
Conference League Conference League FT
18:45 Aarhus - SC Braga
2
Market: 1.95
Fair: 1.49
 0:0 100 j. -100
Europa League Europa League FT
21:00 Torreense - Ararat-Armenia
1
Market: 1.75
Fair: 1.43
 3:2 79 j. +59.3
Europa League Europa League FT
21:00 Celta Vigo - Union St. Gilloise
1
Market: 2.20
Fair: 1.79
 1:2 65 j. -65
Europa League Europa League FT
18:45 Lillestrom - Plzen
1
Market: 2.90
Fair: 2.27
 0:1 61 j. -61
Europa League Europa League FT
21:00 Celtic - Beşiktaş
2
Market: 2.15
Fair: 1.79
 3:2 57 j. -57
Côte d'Ivoire Ligue 1 FT
16:30 Stella - AFAD
2
Market: 2.70
Fair: 2.17
 1:1 56 j. -56
Conference League Conference League FT
18:45 Trabzonspor - SC Freiburg
2
Market: 2.70
Fair: 2.22
 0:1 48 j. +81.6
Brazil Serie A Betano FT
01:30 Sao Paulo - Corinthians
1
Market: 2.50
Fair: 2.08
 0:0 48 j. -48
Brazil Serie A Betano FT
01:30 Botafogo - Atletico-MG
2
Market: 5.00
Fair: 3.70
 1:0 47 j. -47
Iran Persian Gulf Pro League FT
14:00 Shams Azar Qazvin - Sanat Naft
1
Market: 2.51
Fair: 2.17
 0:1 36 j. -36
Stakes597 j.
Net Profit-329.2 j.
ROI-55.1 %
Success Rate20 %
Exact Opposite Strategy (Bookies know why they set odds differently)
Match & League Tip Odds (Market / Fair) Result Stake Balance
Conference League Conference League FT
18:45 Aarhus - SC Braga
1
Market: 3.75
Fair: 7.69
 0:0 100 j. -100
Europa League Europa League FT
21:00 Torreense - Ararat-Armenia
2
Market: 4.33
Fair: 9.09
 3:2 79 j. -79
Europa League Europa League FT
21:00 Celta Vigo - Union St. Gilloise
2
Market: 2.90
Fair: 5.26
 1:2 65 j. +123.5
Europa League Europa League FT
18:45 Lillestrom - Plzen
2
Market: 2.15
Fair: 3.57
 0:1 61 j. +70.2
Europa League Europa League FT
21:00 Celtic - Beşiktaş
1
Market: 2.90
Fair: 5.26
 3:2 57 j. +108.3
Côte d'Ivoire Ligue 1 FT
16:30 Stella - AFAD
1
Market: 2.60
Fair: 4.35
 1:1 56 j. -56
Conference League Conference League FT
18:45 Trabzonspor - SC Freiburg
1
Market: 2.30
Fair: 3.70
 0:1 48 j. -48
Brazil Serie A Betano FT
01:30 Sao Paulo - Corinthians
2
Market: 2.88
Fair: 4.17
 0:0 48 j. -48
Brazil Serie A Betano FT
01:30 Botafogo - Atletico-MG
1
Market: 1.57
Fair: 2.27
 1:0 47 j. +26.8
Iran Persian Gulf Pro League FT
14:00 Shams Azar Qazvin - Sanat Naft
2
Market: 2.58
Fair: 4.55
 0:1 36 j. +56.9
Stakes597 j.
Net Profit+54.6 j.
ROI9.1 %
Success Rate50 %
📊 ANALYSES AND ODDS BY LEAGUE
Europa League Europa League
18:45
Levski Sofia
2 : 1
Jagiellonia
Market1 1.95X 3.502 3.60
Fair1 2.17X 3.572 3.85
18:45
Lillestrom
2 : 1
Plzen
Market1 2.90X 3.602 2.15
Fair1 2.27X 3.572 3.57
VALUE: 1 (+28%)
18:45
NEC Nijmegen
2 : 1
Omonia Nicosia
Market1 1.75X 3.802 3.90
Fair1 2.17X 3.572 3.85
VALUE: X (+6%)
18:45
Real Sociedad
2 : 1
Lyon
Market1 1.70X 3.902 4.20
Fair1 1.92X 3.852 4.55
18:45
Sparta Praha
1 : 2
Bournemouth
Market1 5.50X 4.332 1.50
Fair1 5.88X 4.352 1.67
18:45
AC Milan
2 : 1
Ferencvarosi TC
Market1 1.33X 4.802 8.00
Fair1 1.43X 5.262 9.09
18:45
Anderlecht
2 : 1
Red Bull Salzburg
Market1 1.95X 3.602 3.40
Fair1 1.79X 4.002 5.26
VALUE: 1 (+9%)
18:45
Crystal Palace
2 : 1
1899 Hoffenheim
Market1 1.91X 3.702 3.40
Fair1 1.92X 3.852 4.55
21:00
Sunderland
2 : 1
Dinamo Zagreb
Market1 1.44X 4.402 6.00
Fair1 1.49X 5.002 7.69
21:00
Torreense
2 : 1
Ararat-Armenia
Market1 1.75X 3.502 4.33
Fair1 1.43X 5.262 9.09
VALUE: 1 (+22%)
21:00
AZ Alkmaar
1 : 2
Juventus
Market1 3.40X 3.502 1.95
Fair1 4.17X 3.702 2.04
21:00
Bayer Leverkusen
2 : 1
Marseille
Market1 1.36X 5.002 6.50
Fair1 1.59X 4.552 6.67
VALUE: X (+10%)
21:00
Benfica
3 : 1
Lech Poznan
Market1 1.15X 7.502 15.00
Fair1 1.22X 8.332 16.67
21:00
Celta Vigo
2 : 1
Union St. Gilloise
Market1 2.20X 3.402 2.90
Fair1 1.79X 4.002 5.26
VALUE: 1 (+23%)
21:00
Celtic
1 : 2
Beşiktaş
Market1 2.90X 3.702 2.15
Fair1 5.26X 4.002 1.79
VALUE: 2 (+20%)
21:00
Hapoel Beer Sheva
1 : 1
OFI
Market1 2.05X 3.402 3.30
Fair1 2.63X 3.452 3.03
VALUE: 2 (+9%)
21:00
Sturm Graz
2 : 1
Celje
Market1 1.57X 4.002 5.00
Fair1 1.82X 4.002 5.00
Conference League Conference League
18:45
KuPS
1 : 2
Gent
Market1 4.60X 3.802 1.65
Fair1 4.17X 3.702 2.04
VALUE: 1 (+10%)
18:45
Lincoln Red Imps FC
1 : 2
HNK Hajduk Split
Market1 8.00X 4.502 1.35
Fair1 5.88X 4.352 1.67
VALUE: 1 (+36%)
18:45
FC Midtjylland
1 : 1
Ajax
Market1 2.62X 3.502 2.30
Fair1 2.44X 3.452 3.33
VALUE: 1 (+7%)
18:45
Mjallby AIF
2 : 1
Borac Banja Luka
Market1 2.20X 3.102 3.10
Fair1 2.17X 3.572 3.85
18:45
FC Thun
1 : 1
Heart Of Midlothian
Market1 2.25X 3.402 2.80
Fair1 2.63X 3.452 3.03
18:45
Aarhus
1 : 2
SC Braga
Market1 3.75X 3.202 1.95
Fair1 7.69X 5.002 1.49
VALUE: 2 (+31%)
18:45
Trabzonspor
1 : 2
SC Freiburg
Market1 2.30X 3.402 2.70
Fair1 3.70X 3.572 2.22
VALUE: 2 (+21%)
18:45
Atalanta
3 : 0
Kairat Almaty
Market1 1.17X 7.002 13.00
Fair1 1.14X 12.502 25.00
18:45
FK Crvena Zvezda
4 : 1
Inter Club d'Escaldes
Market1 1.07X 11.002 34.00
Fair1 1.10X 16.672 33.33
21:00
St. Truiden
2 : 1
Brann
Market1 1.70X 3.802 4.20
Fair1 2.04X 3.702 4.17
21:00
Twente
2 : 1
Pafos
Market1 1.30X 5.002 8.00
Fair1 1.67X 4.352 5.88
VALUE: X (+15%), 2 (+36%)
21:00
FC Copenhagen
3 : 0
FC Iberia 1999
Market1 1.17X 6.502 13.00
Fair1 1.11X 14.292 33.33
VALUE: 1 (+5%)
21:00
Universitatea Craiova
2 : 1
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Market1 1.40X 4.332 6.50
Fair1 1.82X 4.002 5.00
VALUE: X (+8%), 2 (+30%)
21:00
Getafe
1 : 2
Brighton
Market1 5.50X 3.802 1.55
Fair1 4.76X 3.852 1.89
VALUE: 1 (+15%)
21:00
FC Lugano
3 : 1
Kauno Žalgiris
Market1 1.18X 6.502 12.00
Fair1 1.19X 9.092 20.00
21:00
Monaco
3 : 1
FC Nordsjaelland
Market1 1.44X 4.502 6.00
Fair1 1.33X 6.252 11.11
VALUE: 1 (+8%)
21:00
Panathinaikos
3 : 1
CSKA Sofia
Market1 1.44X 4.332 6.00
Fair1 1.33X 6.252 11.11
VALUE: 1 (+8%)
21:00
Riga
1 : 1
FK Jablonec
Market1 2.25X 3.102 3.00
Fair1 2.50X 3.452 3.23
Brazil Serie A Betano
01:30
Botafogo
1 : 0
Atletico-MG
Market1 1.57X 3.902 5.00
Fair1 2.27X 3.452 3.70
VALUE: X (+13%), 2 (+35%)
01:30
Sao Paulo
2 : 1
Corinthians
Market1 2.50X 2.902 2.88
Fair1 2.08X 3.572 4.17
VALUE: 1 (+20%)
23:30
Palmeiras
2 : 1
Remo
Market1 1.22X 6.002 11.00
Fair1 1.43X 5.262 9.09
VALUE: X (+14%), 2 (+21%)
Argentina Liga Profesional
19:00
Aldosivi
0 : 1
River Plate
Market1 6.50X 4.002 1.44
Fair1 5.26X 3.332 1.96
VALUE: 1 (+23%), X (+20%)
23:15
Gimnasia L.P.
1 : 1
Belgrano Cordoba
Market1 2.20X 3.102 3.10
Fair1 2.33X 3.132 4.00
Saudi Arabia Saudi Pro League
14:25
Al Kholood
2 : 1
Al Khaleej Saihat
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 2.44X 3.852 3.03
16:10
Abha
1 : 2
Al Shabab
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 3.70X 4.002 2.08
18:30
Al-Qadisiyah FC
3 : 1
Al-Fayha
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 1.16X 11.112 20.00
Peru Torneo Apertura
02:30
Universitario
2 : 1
Sport Boys
Market1 1.36X 4.502 8.00
Fair1 1.54X 4.762 7.14
VALUE: 2 (+12%)
Brazil Serie B Superbet
23:30
Botafogo SP
1 : 0
Londrina
Market1 1.73X 3.402 4.50
Fair1 2.00X 3.452 4.76
Columbia Primera A
00:30
Cucuta
1 : 1
Santa Fe
Market1 2.90X 3.102 2.30
Fair1 3.45X 3.232 2.50
02:30
Millonarios
1 : 0
America de Cali
Market1 1.91X 3.302 3.90
Fair1 2.22X 3.332 4.00
Botswana Premier League
15:00
Nico United
1 : 1
Morupule Wanderers
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 2.33X 3.232 3.85
18:00
Police XI
1 : 1
Township Rollers
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 2.50X 3.132 3.57
Costa Rica Primera División
01:00
Puntarenas FC
2 : 1
San Carlos
Market1 2.15X 3.102 2.90
Fair1 2.33X 3.452 3.57
03:00
Escorpiones Belén
1 : 2
LD Alajuelense
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 5.26X 3.852 1.82
Côte d'Ivoire Ligue 1
16:30
Bouaké
0 : 0
Korhogo
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 2.94X 3.032 3.03
16:30
San-Pédro
1 : 1
SOA
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 2.86X 3.032 3.13
16:30
Stella
0 : 1
AFAD
Market1 2.60X 2.802 2.70
Fair1 4.35X 3.232 2.17
VALUE: 2 (+24%)
19:00
ISCA
0 : 1
ASEC Mimosas
Market1 4.33X 3.102 1.80
Fair1 7.14X 3.852 1.67
VALUE: 2 (+8%)
El Salvador Primera Division
02:00
Firpo
2 : 1
Alianza
Market1 1.73X 3.302 4.40
Fair1 1.75X 4.172 5.26
02:00
Municipal Limeño
2 : 1
Fuerte San Francisco
Market1 1.65X 3.402 4.80
Fair1 1.64X 4.352 6.25
France National
20:45
Valenciennes
1 : 1
Orleans
Market1 2.15X 3.002 3.00
Fair1 2.63X 3.332 3.13
Honduras Liga Nacional
00:15
Estrella Roja
1 : 2
CD Motagua
Market1 3.70X 3.602 1.75
Fair1 3.85X 3.852 2.08
02:30
CD Olimpia
3 : 0
Juticalpa
Market1 1.14X 7.002 15.00
Fair1 1.14X 12.502 25.00
22:00
Génesis
1 : 2
Real Espana
Market1 3.00X 3.402 2.05
Fair1 4.17X 4.002 1.96
India I-League
14:00
Samaleswari SC
2 : 1
Dempo
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 2.63X 3.852 2.78
India Super League
12:30
Churchill Brothers
1 : 2
NorthEast United
Market1 3.50X 3.302 1.91
Fair1 3.70X 3.702 2.17
15:00
ATK Mohun Bagan
2 : 1
Odisha
Market1 1.30X 4.752 7.50
Fair1 1.54X 4.762 7.14
Iran Persian Gulf Pro League
14:00
Shams Azar Qazvin
0 : 0
Sanat Naft
Market1 2.51X 3.022 2.58
Fair1 2.17X 3.132 4.55
VALUE: 1 (+15%)
Iraq Super League
14:00
Al Kahrabaa
1 : 1
Zakho
Market1 3.50X 3.002 2.00
Fair1 3.03X 3.232 2.78
VALUE: 1 (+16%)
14:45
Diyala
1 : 1
Al Minaa Basra
Market1 2.60X 3.002 2.55
Fair1 2.63X 3.232 3.23
16:30
Mosul
1 : 1
Duhok
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 3.57X 3.232 2.44
Jamaica Premier League
21:00
Portmore United
2 : 0
Treasure Beach
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 1.37X 5.882 10.00
Oman Professional League
13:45
Fanja
1 : 1
Al Musannah
Market1 -X -2 -
Fair1 2.94X 3.332 2.78
16:20
Dhofar
1 : 0
Saham
Market1 2.50X 2.802 2.70
Fair1 2.33X 3.452 3.57
VALUE: 1 (+7%)
Romania Liga II
16:00
Chindia Targoviste
2 : 1
Popești-Leordeni
Market1 1.55X 3.802 5.00
Fair1 2.00X 3.702 4.35
VALUE: 2 (+15%)
Uzbekistan Super League
14:30
Bunyodkor
2 : 1
Xorazm
Market1 2.40X 3.002 2.62
Fair1 2.27X 3.452 3.70
VALUE: 1 (+6%)
Venezuela Liga FUTVE
00:30
Metropolitanos FC
1 : 1
Carabobo FC
Market1 2.80X 3.252 2.30
Fair1 2.50X 3.332 3.33
VALUE: 1 (+12%)
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